NASA Warns of Increased Odds for Asteroid Collision With Earth in 2032

NASA has doubled the estimated chance that a newly discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, could collide with Earth in December 2032. The asteroid, which was first reported on Dec. 27, 2024, initially had a 1% probability of impact—a figure that has now been updated to 2.3%, according to a Feb. 7 blog post from NASA.

While still an extremely low possibility, asteroid 2024 YR4’s impact probability with Earth has increased from about 1% to a 2.3% chance on Dec. 22, 2032. As we observe the asteroid more, the impact probability will become better known. More: https://t.co/VWiASTMBDi pic.twitter.com/Z1mpb4UPaC

— NASA Asteroid Watch (@AsteroidWatch) February 7, 2025

While 2.3% may seem low, NASA navigation engineer Davide Farnocchia told ABC News that this percentage is “uncommon” for near-Earth objects. The asteroid is currently rated 3 out of 10 on the Torino scale, a system used to assess the impact hazard of space objects. Most asteroids rank at zero, meaning this one stands out as a potential risk.

2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet wide, a size large enough to cause significant localized damage if it were to strike the planet. For comparison, the 2013 Chelyabinsk asteroid explosion over Russia, which injured 1,500 people and damaged over 7,200 buildings, was only about 60 feet wide.

Scientists are racing against time to gather as much data as possible before 2024 YR4 disappears from view in April 2028 due to its unique orbital pattern. The James Webb Space Telescope and other international observatories will help refine size estimates and impact potential in the coming years.

Despite the concerns, NASA is urging caution—not panic. Many previously high-risk asteroids have dropped to zero probability of impact as more accurate measurements became available. For now, 2024 YR4 remains one to watch.