Trump Blames Chicago for Everything Again, Forgetting Red States Are Leading in Crime Stats

Donald Trump took to Truth Social this week to launch a blistering attack on Chicago, calling it the “most dangerous city in the world” and claiming it holds the title of “murder capital.” He cited recent gun violence over the weekend, noting that at least 54 people were shot and 8 were killed. But while the incidents were tragic and continue to highlight the city’s struggles with gun violence, the picture Trump painted doesn’t match the facts on the ground.

Chicago’s challenges with crime are very real, but calling it the murder capital is misleading at best. According to new 2024 data, Chicago actually recorded 573 homicides for the year, its lowest since 2019. That amounts to about 21 murders per 100,000 residents. In comparison to other major U.S. cities, that places Chicago far outside the top 10. In fact, the city ranks around 15th in per-capita murder rates. Cities like St. Louis, Baltimore, Memphis, and Birmingham all see significantly higher murder rates year after year, with some cities more than doubling Chicago’s numbers.

Take St. Louis for example. Its murder rate has hovered between 54 to 69 per 100,000 in recent years. That’s more than triple what Chicago reported in 2024. Baltimore is close behind with 51 per 100,000, while Memphis has remained one of the highest in the country. These cities aren’t just experiencing higher crime — they’re consistently leading the nation in violence per capita. That’s a critical distinction that gets lost when political leaders, including Trump, focus only on total numbers without acknowledging city size or population.

It’s true that Chicago often leads the country in the raw number of homicides, but that’s largely because of its size. With more than 2.6 million residents, Chicago is the third largest city in the United States. So while the total number of incidents may appear high, the per-person risk is much lower than what you’ll find in many smaller cities with fewer residents but significantly higher murder rates.

The same trend holds for violent crime overall, which includes homicide, aggravated assault, robbery, and rape. Chicago’s violent crime rate is around 540 per 100,000 people. That’s higher than the national average of about 359, but it doesn’t even crack the top 10 among large U.S. cities. Cities with worse numbers include Detroit at over 1,700 per 100,000, Baltimore at over 1,600, Houston at more than 1,100, and even Washington, D.C., which reported around 926. Memphis topped the list again with over 2,500 violent crimes per 100,000 residents, more than four times Chicago’s rate.

That’s not the narrative Trump pushed. In his post, he insisted that Chicago is the most dangerous place in the world, while touting his own record on crime and saying he’ll make the Windy City safe just like he did in DC. But a look at the numbers shows that violent crime is surging in many cities that fall in Republican-led states, places often described as “red states” in political terms. Memphis and Nashville, both in Tennessee, consistently rank among the top for both violent crime and murder rates. Birmingham in Alabama, Jackson in Mississippi, and several Texas cities including Houston and Dallas also show up with higher crime rates than Chicago across the board.

When looking at the total crime rate — combining violent and property crimes — Chicago comes in at about 4,012 per 100,000 residents. That’s roughly double the national average, but again, it’s nowhere near the highest. Memphis leads the pack with over 9,400 incidents per 100,000. Detroit follows closely, and cities like Nashville and Baltimore also post numbers far above Chicago’s. Even Philadelphia, Houston, and Indianapolis report higher total crime rates than Chicago. Importantly, many of these cities are in states with Republican governors or legislatures, undercutting the idea that crime is simply a blue-state or Democratic city problem.

Trump’s claim that Chicago is the “murder capital of the world” falls apart even faster when viewed through a global lens. Cities in Latin America and other parts of the world regularly report homicide rates that make any U.S. city look tame in comparison. Colima, Mexico saw a jaw-dropping 181.9 murders per 100,000 people in 2023. Several other cities in Mexico, Brazil, South Africa, and beyond report yearly murder rates well above 50 or even 100 per 100,000. Compared to that, Chicago’s 21 is nowhere close.

It’s clear that Trump’s posts are more about political messaging than public safety facts. Painting Chicago as a war zone may fire up his base, but it ignores real data and the nuance that comes with understanding crime in America. If public safety is truly the priority, then attention should go to the cities that consistently rank highest in per-capita violence, many of which fall outside of the usual political talking points.

Chicago’s gun violence problem is serious and deserves real solutions, but the data proves it’s not the most dangerous city in America, and it’s certainly not the murder capital of the world. While Trump continues to point fingers, the facts show that many cities in red states are facing even steeper challenges with violence and crime.