Economists Believe Trump’s Tariffs On Mexico and China Could Catapult the U.S. Into Recession By 2020

America’s business leaders and expert economists are growing more worried that the United States will enter a recession by the end of 2020, and their primary fear seems to be the protectionist trade policy, according to a report released Monday by the National Association for Business Economics.

The survey, based on responses by 53 economists, is a leading barometer of where the US business community thinks the economy is headed, especially with the threat of a trade war looming.

According to CNN, the report finds that the risk of a “recession happening soon remains low but will “rise rapidly” next year.” The survey’s respondents said the risk of recession starting in 2019 is only 15% but 60% by the end of 2020, the publication added, while about a third of respondents forecast a recession will begin halfway through next year.

Morgan Stanley insiders told CNN that “If no deal is struck with China, a global recession could occur in less than a year.”

The Economists say the United States is probably somewhere in the last stages of an epic run of economic growth that began in 2009, following the Great Recession, with the help of the  Obama administration.

But now with a Trade War pending on two fronts (Mexico and China), US consumers can expect to get hit once Trump’s tariffs trickle down to the home front. It is US consumers who make up two-thirds of the country’s GDP.

Trump, who took charge of the US economy from Obama in 2017, has tried to reposition the United States on global trade and while his efforts initially looked good, the long term effects are what will really have the most impact. He has picked fights with China and Europe and has threatened tariffs on Mexico over illegal immigration and India over access to its markets, the publication reports.

The National Association for Business Economics has other notable findings, including the fact that 56% of respondents cited increasingly protectionist trade policy as the greatest risk to the US economy in 2019. Separately, 88% pointed to US trade policy, and retaliation by other nations, for why they lowered their GDP (Growth Domestic Product) growth forecasts. 14% believe a “substantial” decline in the stock market, and 10% feel a slowdown in global growth, are the biggest risks to the US economy.

Experts also believe that business spending will moderate this year and the next after growing a strong 6.9% in 2018.