Trump speech bets are at the center of a federal investigation involving a longtime White House aide who reportedly had advance access to some of Donald Trump’s most closely watched prepared remarks.
According to ABC News, Gabriel Perez, a technical assistant who has operated Trump’s teleprompter since his first presidential campaign in 2016, allegedly earned more than $100,000 through wagers placed on the prediction market Kalshi. Sources familiar with the investigation told the outlet that Perez is discussing a possible settlement with regulators from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The investigation reportedly focuses on bets connected to more than a dozen Trump speeches over a three month period. The appearances included a December primetime address, Trump’s January remarks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, a February State of the Union address and remarks delivered during a March Medal of Honor ceremony.
The alleged Trump speech bets were placed through Kalshi’s “Mentions” markets, which allow traders to wager on whether a speaker will use certain words, phrases or topics during a public appearance. Kalshi detected suspicious activity and referred the trades to the CFTC.
“Our surveillance team promptly flagged and referred these trades to the CFTC, and we are cooperating and assisting regulators,” Kalshi lead lawyer Bobby DeNault said in a statement provided to ABC News.
The White House acknowledged the investigation without announcing any disciplinary action against Perez.
“The White House has strict ethics guidelines that we expect all staffers and officials to follow,” spokesperson Davis Ingle told ABC News. “The staffer in question is fully cooperating with the CFTC.”
Perez reportedly remains in his position. According to ABC News, his role gives him unusually close access to prepared remarks before they become public. Sources told the outlet that Perez is often among the final people to review Trump’s speeches and sometimes receives last minute changes directly from Trump.
That access could become a central issue in the Trump speech bets investigation because the CFTC’s insider trading authority generally focuses on whether someone used material nonpublic information in violation of a duty owed to the source of that information.
According to the CFTC, prediction markets allow participants to purchase contracts connected to future events. A contract usually pays a fixed amount when a particular outcome occurs, while the price reflects the market’s estimated likelihood of that outcome. The agency has made clear that traders may use personal knowledge and public research, but they cannot misappropriate confidential information obtained through a trusted position.
CFTC Enforcement Director David Miller said in March that insider trading laws apply to prediction markets when a person trades with misappropriated information. According to the agency, liability can arise when someone possesses material nonpublic information, uses it while violating a duty of trust or confidence and acts with fraudulent intent.
Kalshi also prohibits customers from placing trades based on confidential information obtained through their employment. The platform announced additional safeguards in June, including employment verification for selected markets, new risk scores for markets that may be vulnerable to insider activity and expanded tools for reporting suspicious trades.
According to Kalshi, the company conducted more than 150 investigations during the first quarter, blocked more than 100 potential insider trades and made more than 20 referrals to law enforcement.
“If you have information by virtue of your job or your employment, something that you have a legal duty surrounding, and you have an obligation not to take that, misappropriate it for yourself,” DeNault told ABC News in May.
Investigators reportedly identified occasions when Perez withdrew from certain Trump speech bets while an address was still underway. Sources say the exits happened when Trump skipped prepared sections containing words that Perez had allegedly predicted would be mentioned.
Trump has publicly discussed his habit of departing from written material.
“You know, when you go up here, you take a big chance, especially me because I go off teleprompter about 80% of the time,” Trump said during January remarks to the Detroit Economic Club. Investigators believe that appearance was among the speeches Perez wagered on.
Perez participated in an interview with regulators and acknowledged making some of the trades. The CFTC reportedly contacted federal prosecutors in Manhattan during its inquiry, but prosecutors declined to open a criminal investigation.
That decision does not automatically end the regulatory matter. According to ABC News, settlement discussions have included the possibility that Perez would return his alleged profits and agree not to engage in similar trading. The CFTC declined the outlet’s request for comment.
The case arrives as federal authorities place greater attention on insider activity across rapidly expanding prediction platforms. In February, the CFTC highlighted a previous Kalshi matter involving an editor who allegedly used advance knowledge of upcoming YouTube videos. Kalshi required that trader to surrender profits, pay an additional penalty and accept a two year suspension.
In April, the Department of Justice charged Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke with allegedly using classified information about a military operation involving Nicolás Maduro to place prediction market wagers. Prosecutors said Van Dyke earned more than $400,000. The accusations remain allegations, and Van Dyke is presumed innocent unless proven guilty.
One month later, the Department of Justice charged Google software engineer Michele Spagnuolo with allegedly using confidential company data to earn approximately $1.2 million through Polymarket trades involving Google’s annual search rankings. Those accusations also remain allegations.
Trump has expressed mixed feelings about the industry. According to ABC News, he said in April that the United States risked being “left out in the cold” if companies including Kalshi and Polymarket were not permitted to operate.
“Well the whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino, and you look at what’s going on all over the world in Europe and every place they’re doing these betting things. I was never much in favor of it. I don’t like it conceptually, but it is what it is,” Trump told reporters.
The Trump speech bets allegations now present a direct test of whether prediction platforms and federal regulators can protect market integrity when the person placing a wager may have access to the answer before everyone else.
