Measles Could Surge to 51 Million Cases in 25 Years if Vaccination Rates Continue to Drop, Study Warns

Falling vaccination rates could spark a devastating resurgence of measles and other eradicated diseases in the U.S., a new study warns.

Published in JAMA, the research used modeling to forecast measles cases under several scenarios, including if vaccination rates “hold steady, rise, or fall.” Although measles was eliminated in the U.S. decades ago thanks to the Measles, Mumps, and Rubella (MMR) vaccine, rising vaccine hesitancy has fueled a dangerous comeback, with hundreds of cases already reported.

If vaccination rates remain at today’s level, researchers predict “851,300 cases of measles over the next 25 years.” But if rates fall just 10 percent, the study projects “11.1 million measles cases,” and if they fall by 50 percent, “51.2 million cases” could occur.

The threat isn’t limited to measles. Assuming similar drops for all childhood vaccines, “cases of polio and rubella could also rise,” potentially causing “10.3 million hospitalizations and 159,200 deaths,” along with thousands of cases of severe complications.

Researchers caution that if these diseases become endemic again, “it would take time to eradicate them a second time,” even if vaccinations increase later.

Lower vaccination rates also threaten herd immunity, putting “those too young to get vaccinated and immunocompromised people” at serious risk.

Despite vaccines’ long-proven safety record and the debunking of a study falsely linking MMR to autism, figures like HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have “repeatedly raised doubts about vaccine safety” and promoted ineffective alternatives like “diet and vitamin A.”

Measles remains a deadly threat: “One in five unvaccinated people” will be hospitalized, and “1 to 3 of every 1,000 children” will die.