Harvard researchers say social distancing may be a practice Americans have to use until 2022 to curve the coronavirus.
This too shall pass is what we all are thinking at home as we try to manage our new norms, but researchers are now saying it may not pass until 2022 and Americans will have to continue to keep some measures of social distancing until a vaccine is widely available, according to a modeling study published on Tuesday in journal Science.
Researchers from Harvard University’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health used computer models to track how COVID-19 might spread in the next five years. Based on the simulations, researchers say school closures and stay-at-home orders may have to stay intact for the next few years in order for the virus to die down in numbers. “Intermittent distancing may be required into 2022 unless critical care capacity is increased substantially or a treatment or vaccine becomes available,” said the researchers’ report.
“We do not take a position on the advisability of these scenarios given the economic burden that sustained distancing may impose, but we note the potentially catastrophic burden on the healthcare system that is predicted if distancing is poorly effective and/or not sustained for long enough,” the report said.
Before you totally freak out, the scientists say there still is a heavy amount of work to be done to determine if the virus will change with the seasons, the Hill reports. Other information researchers are looking to solidify is how long immunity to the new coronavirus lasts and if milder forms of coronavirus stand as a defense in any way against the virus that causes COVID-19. Finding a vaccine could also take about 12 to 18 months, according to health officials.
There are currently 70,640 new cases in the world and a death toll of 125,201 in connection to the virus.
