The summer could be rough for shoppers and workers alike if new forecasts from Apollo Global Management prove true.
According to a report from Investors.com, Apollo’s Chief Economist Torsten Slok predicts that President Donald Trump’s latest trade war moves could lead to a major slowdown in shipping, resulting in empty store shelves and a U.S. recession by this summer.
Here’s what’s happening: Shipping volumes between China and North America are reportedly dropping fast, with Flexport noting that shipment cancellations are now at 50%. As a result, ocean carriers are scaling back operations at a pace not seen since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Apollo’s timeline is alarming; container ships heading to U.S. ports are expected to slow to a crawl by mid-May. With trucking and rail lines relying on those deliveries, domestic freight could stop moving by late May, leaving retailers with fewer goods to sell.
By early June, layoffs are expected to hit the trucking and retail sectors hard, setting the stage for a summer recession.
Shipping industry analysts are already seeing warning signs. Drewry, a maritime consultancy, forecasts a 1% drop in global container port volume this year — only the third time shipping demand has fallen since 1979. If most tariffs stay in place, U.S. imports from China could plummet by 40%, according to Drewry’s research cited by Reuters.
Flexport also reports that major ports like Los Angeles and Long Beach have been unloading extra inventory stocked up before the tariffs took effect. However, with new orders drying up, cancellation rates are now approaching pandemic levels.
Big names like Walmart, Target, and Amazon could feel the pressure first. The National Retail Federation has already forecast a 20% drop in U.S. import cargo volume for the second half of 2025. Meanwhile, stocks for shipping companies and domestic freight carriers like Old Dominion Freight Line and ArcBest are sharply down this month.
If Apollo’s predictions hold, the coming months could bring a tough mix of higher prices, fewer goods, and job cuts — all tied to the escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
Stay tuned as this situation develops, and prepare for some serious shifts at the checkout line.
